Study of the Evolution of the Performance Ratio of Photovoltaic Plants Operating in a Utility-Scale Installation Located at a Subtropical Climate Zone Using Mixed-Effects Linear Modeling

Abstract

This paper assessed the evolution of the performance ratio (PR) of a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) installation that operates at subtropical climate conditions. The period of study encompassed 8 years, and the PR was calculated according to the ICE 61724 standard with a monthly resolution. A linear mixed effects model (LME) is a suitable tool for analyzing longitudinal data. Three LME models were assessed to provide the degradation rate. The “null model” evaluates the general relationship between PR and time with a monthly declination rate (ΔPR%) of 0.0391%/month. The “typology model” considered the relationship between PR and, as covariates, time, Manufacturer, Technology, and NominalP. Only the ΔPR% related to NominalP was found to be significant, so that, when the nominal power of a type of PV module used for a PV production unit is increased by one unit, the ΔPR% of the corresponding unit increases by 0.000897%/month. Finally, the “location model” took into account the relationship between PR and, as covariates, time, Edge, and LengthSt. These last two factors were significant, resulting in an increase of 0.0132%/month for a PV unit located at the edge of the facility and 0.00117%/month and per PV production unit when considering the length of a street, respectively.

Keywords

• solar photovoltaic
• performance ratio
• PV module degradation
• mixed-effect linear modeling