Outcome Prediction at Patient Level Derived from Pre-Treatment 18F-FDG PET Due to Machine Learning in Metastatic Melanoma Treated with Anti-PD1 Treatment

Abstract

(1) Background: As outcome of patients with metastatic melanoma treated with anti-PD1 immunotherapy can vary in success, predictors are needed. We aimed to predict at the patients’ levels, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) after one year of immunotherapy, based on their pre-treatment 18F-FDG PET; (2) Methods: Fifty-six metastatic melanoma patients—without prior systemic treatment—were retrospectively included. Forty-five 18F-FDG PET-based radiomic features were computed and the top five features associated with the patient’s outcome were selected. The analyzed machine learning classifiers were random forest (RF), neural network, naive Bayes, logistic regression and support vector machine. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to compare model performances, which were validated by cross-validation; (3) Results: The RF model obtained the best performance after validation to predict OS and PFS and presented AUC, sensitivities and specificities (IC95%) of 0.87 ± 0.1, 0.79 ± 0.11 and 0.95 ± 0.06 for OS and 0.9 ± 0.07, 0.88 ± 0.09 and 0.91 ± 0.08 for PFS, respectively. (4) Conclusion: A RF classifier, based on pretreatment 18F-FDG PET radiomic features may be useful for predicting the survival status for melanoma patients, after one year of a first line systemic treatment by immunotherapy.

Keywords

• 18F-FDG PET
• radiomics
• machine-learning
• immunotherapy
• melanoma
• prediction