ICU Survival Prediction Incorporating Test-Time Augmentation to Improve the Accuracy of Ensemble-Based Models

Abstract

This work presents a novel method for applying test-time augmentation (TTA) to tabular data. We used TTA along with an ensemble of 42 models to achieve higher performance on the MIT Global Open Source Severity of Illness Score dataset consisting of 131,051 ICU visits and outcomes. This method achieved an AUC of 0.915 on the private test set (19,669 admissions) and won first place at Stanford University’s WiDS Datathon 2020 challenge on Kaggle, while the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV model (commonly used for ICU survival prediction in the literature) achieved an AUC of 0.868. In addition to increasing the AUC score, our method also reduces “unfair” bias.

Keywords

• Ensemble methods
• machine learning
• supervised classification
• healthcare