Yield forecasting of wheat and mustard for western Uttar Pradesh using statistical model

Abstract

Twenty one years (1992-2013) of weather data and yield data of wheat and mustard for 10 districts of western Uttar Pradesh were used to develop yield prediction model. The models were validated with 2014 and 2015 data set. The results revealed that pre harvest forecasting model had R2 values ranging between 22 and 81 per cent for wheat crop and between 26 and 87 per cent for mustard in the different districts. During both the years of validation the observed yields were in good agreement with forecasted yields for wheat as well as mustard.

Keywords

• Forecast,
• wheat,
• mustard,
• validate model