Impact of New Energy Vehicle Development on China’s Crude Oil Imports: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

Breaking the highly oil-dependent energy use structure in the transportation sector will be crucial for China to reduce its dependence on crude oil imports and ensure its energy security, and the development of new energy vehicles is helping to break this dilemma. A time series analysis summarizes the possible relationships between new energy vehicles and crude oil imports, i.e., new energy vehicles, as alternatives to fuel vehicles, will reduce the demand for oil in the transportation sector, which will in turn reduce crude oil imports, and crude oil prices and crude oil production will inhibit crude oil imports. In this empirical study, monthly data from 2015 to 2021 on crude oil imports, the market share of new energy vehicles, crude oil prices, and crude oil production are selected, time-series multiple regression modelling is adopted, and endogeneity is treated using a generalized method of moments (GMM). The regression results show that crude oil imports decrease by one unit for every 16.32% increase in crude oil prices, indicating that price factor is the most influential factor in China’s crude oil imports, while crude oil imports decrease by one unit for every 133.99% increase in crude oil production, indicating that an increase in crude oil production contributes less to the reduction of crude oil imports. One unit of crude oil imports is added for every 15.53% increase in the share of new energy vehicles, indicating that the effect of new energy vehicles on limiting crude oil imports has not yet emerged. Probably due to the fact that new energy vehicles have not yet had a significant impact on fuel vehicles, oil consumption will continue to increase in the short and medium term, with oil for the petrochemical industry becoming the primary driver of this increase. Finally, policy implications are provided from the perspective of crude oil demand, supply, and China’s oil price mechanism.

Keywords

• new energy vehicles
• crude oil imports
• crude oil external dependence
• transportation energy transition