Projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution range of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is a global concern, with far-reaching implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. Understanding impact on species distribution is crucial for effective conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil and estimate the presence of climate suitability within protected areas in the future. We used ecological niche models to assess the potential distribution of 11 endemic species, providing predictions of current and future scenarios using an optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenario. The results revealed that in the optimistic scenario, 45% of the species may experience a partial reduction in their potential distribution range by 2100, and this percentage increases to 54% in the pessimistic scenario. Other species, on the other hand, will increase their potential distribution. The climatically suitable area for most species will be inserted in some protected areas, but species with limited current distribution and decreasing potential range must be prioritized for conservation. This study provides valuable information about the future potential distribution of endemic species of Manihot.

Keywords

• Euphorbiaceae
• Ecological Niche Models
• future scenarios
• global warming
• Maxent