PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR THE SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TUBERCULOSIS AMONG THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF THE STATE OF PARÁ, BRAZIL

Abstract

Objective: develop a model that is able to identify the correlation between socioeconomic determinants and incidence of tuberculosis in the indigenous population of the state of Pará. Method: quantitative analytical study, which built a predictive model using Poisson regression for 285 new cases reported in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, from January 2010 to December 2015, in the state of Pará. Results: the model confirmed that 86% of the total number of new cases can be explained by the variables: receipt of social benefits from the government, income, education and sex. The first variable was considered the most significant with p<0.10. Conclusion: the predictive model is useful as a support for making decisions, since it enables focusing tuberculosis control actions on individuals at greater risk: indigenous men, with no education, who do not receive social benefits.

Keywords

• tuberculosis
• indigenous population
• social conditions
• health information system
• logistic models