Probabilistic analysis on the influences of heatwaves during the onset of flash droughts over China

Abstract

The increasing concurrences of heatwaves and droughts in the context of global warming have attracted much attention from the scientific community given their devastating social and environmental impacts. In this study, the effects of heatwaves in each adjacent week of flash drought onset on the intensification rate of soil moisture were quantified through a meta-Gaussian-based conditional probability model. Results showed that both heatwaves and flash droughts have become more frequent since the middle of the 1990s. For the seasonal distributions, except for the southwestern region where flash droughts lagged behind heatwaves, there was a good synchronization between the two climate extremes. Strong correlations between heatwaves and flash droughts were found in the northeastern, northern, and southwestern regions. Heatwaves with varied timing of emergence behave differently on the formation of flash droughts, along with significant regional differences. Short-term impending hot conditions were crucial for the breakout of flash droughts, especially for the week when flash droughts were initiated, the emergence of heatwaves was likely to increase the intensification rate of soil moisture by 20% compared to those with no heatwaves in their development stage. HIGHLIGHTS The composite patterns of concurrent heatwaves and flash droughts are investigated.; Conditional probability is adopted to quantify the effect of heatwaves on drought.; Heatwaves increase the intensification rate of drought events by about 20%.;

Keywords

• copula
• flash drought
• heatwave
• probabilistic analysis
• soil moisture