Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Economic Density and Vegetation Cover in the Yellow River Basin: Unraveling Interconnections

Abstract

Vegetation, serving as the primary constituent of terrestrial ecosystems, plays a crucial role in regulating energy flow and material cycles and providing vital resources for human socio-economic activities. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal patterns of economic density and vegetation coverage in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on forest resource inventory and socio-economic data from 448 counties in 2008, 2013, and 2018. A three-tiered criterion layer is constructed using economic density as the core explanatory variable, encompassing social development factors, land use factors, and natural factors. A two-way fixed effects model is then utilized to analyze the impact of economic density on vegetation coverage. Results reveal that: (1) Spatially, economic density demonstrates a “low in the west and high in the east” pattern, with an overall upward trend in the YRB. Conversely, vegetation cover exhibits a “high in the west and low in the east” pattern, displaying a downward trend. (2) Over the 2008–2018 period, a significant negative correlation between economic density and vegetation cover is observed in each county of the YRB, with vegetation cover decreasing by 1.108% for every 1 unit increase in economic density. Notably, the upstream areas of the YRB experience a significant increase in vegetation coverage, while the middle and lower reaches witness a decrease. (3) Considering control variables, the proportion of the primary industry, urbanization rate, forest protection level, and cultivated land area exert a significant influence on vegetation coverage across the entire basin. Policymakers should formulate relevant policies to achieve sustainable development in the YRB, as discussed in the proposed countermeasures. This study delineates a practical pathway for high-quality economic development and high-level ecological protection in the YRB, offering a valuable reference for analogous research in other regions.

Keywords

• economic density
• vegetation cover
• spatio-temporal pattern
• two-way fixed effects model
• the Yellow River Basin