Forecasting in Infectious Disease

Abstract

Forecasting is the process by which future events can be predicted. Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks [1]. There are unlimited ways to develop a forecast. Some use relatively simple methodology to extrapolate or project the historical pattern, but the more formal statistical methods of extrapolation usually make use of a mathematical forecasting model [2]. Some essential features in infectious disease epidemiology make it necessary to use quantitative projection techniques for proper forecasting. In principle, forecasting should not be regarded as providing the answer but rather as a tool to increase understanding and highlight important processes.

Keywords

• infectious disease
• forecasting
• public health