Type 1 diabetes: Developing the first risk-estimation model for predicting silent myocardial ischemia. The potential role of insulin resistance.

Abstract

The aim of the study was to develop a novel risk estimation model for predicting silent myocardial ischemia (SMI) in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) and no clinical cardiovascular disease, evaluating the potential role of insulin resistance in such a model. Additionally, the accuracy of this model was compared with currently available models for predicting clinical coronary artery disease (CAD) in general and diabetic populations.Patients with T1DM (35-65years, >10-year duration) and no clinical cardiovascular disease were consecutively evaluated for: 1) clinical and anthropometric data (including classical cardiovascular risk factors), 2) insulin sensitivity (estimate of glucose disposal rate (eGDR)), and 3) SMI diagnosed by stress myocardial perfusion gated SPECTs.Eighty-four T1DM patients were evaluated [50.1±9.3 years, 50% men, 36.9% active smokers, T1DM duration: 19.0(15.9-27.5) years and eGDR 7.8(5.5-9.4)mg·kg-1·min-1]. Of these, ten were diagnosed with SMI (11.9%). Multivariate logistic regression models showed that only eGDR (OR = -0.593, p = 0.005) and active smoking (OR = 7.964, p = 0.018) were independently associated with SMI. The AUC of the ROC curve of this risk estimation model for predicting SMI was 0.833 (95%CI:0.692-0.974), higher than those obtained with the use of currently available models for predicting clinical CAD (Framingham Risk Equation: 0.833 vs. 0.688, p = 0.122; UKPDS Risk Engine (0.833 vs. 0.559; p = 0.001) and EDC equation: 0.833 vs. 0.558, p = 0.027).This study provides the first ever reported risk-estimation model for predicting SMI in T1DM. The model only includes insulin resistance and active smoking as main predictors of SMI.