Seasonal variations and risk factors of infection: a multicenter research network study

Abstract

Background: Streptococcus pyogenes , or Group A Streptococcus (GAS), causes acute pharyngitis and necrotizing fasciitis. Seasonal variations in GAS infections are not robustly characterized. We assessed seasonal variations and risk factors of GAS pharyngitis and ICD-10-diagnosed necrotizing fasciitis. Methods: From the period 2010–2019, we conducted a case–control study using laboratory-confirmed cases of GAS pharyngitis and a descriptive observational study of necrotizing fasciitis using ICD-10 codes. Data were collected from TriNetX, a federated research network. We extracted seasonal (quarterly) incidence rates. We used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to assess seasonal variations. Demographic characteristics and 1-month outcomes were compared among adults with or without GAS pharyngitis. Results: We identified 224,471 adults with GAS pharyngitis (test-positive) and 546,142 adults without it (test-negative). GAS pharyngitis adults were younger (25.3 versus 30.2 years of age, p < 0.0001), more likely to be Hispanic individuals (10% versus 8%, p < 0.0001) and slightly more likely to be Black or African American individuals (14% versus 13%, p < 0.0001). Propensity score matching found that adults with test-positive cases of GAS pharyngitis had a higher risk of acute rheumatic fever while having no significant differences in risk of intensive care unit admission and mortality compared with test-negative cases. GAS pharyngitis average incidence peaked in the winter while dipping in the summer (0.32 versus 0.18 and 4.07 versus 1.78 per 1000 adults and pediatric patients, respectively). Necrotizing fasciitis diagnoses were highest during summer (0.032 per 1000 adults). There was a significant ARIMA seasonal variation in the time series analysis for adult and pediatric GAS pharyngitis ( p < 0.0001 and p = 0.014, respectively). Necrotizing fasciitis diagnosis was not associated with seasonal variation ( p = 0.861). Conclusion: Peaks in GAS pharyngitis occur in the winter months. ICD code–based necrotizing fasciitis did not show a quarterly seasonal variation.