Environment International (May 2024)
Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study
- Bo Wen,
- Yao Wu,
- Yuming Guo,
- Antonio Gasparrini,
- Shilu Tong,
- Ala Overcenco,
- Aleš Urban,
- Alexandra Schneider,
- Alireza Entezari,
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera,
- Antonella Zanobetti,
- Antonis Analitis,
- Ariana Zeka,
- Aurelio Tobias,
- Baltazar Nunes,
- Barrak Alahmad,
- Ben Armstrong,
- Bertil Forsberg,
- Shih-Chun Pan,
- Carmen Íñiguez,
- Caroline Ameling,
- César De la Cruz Valencia,
- Christofer Åström,
- Danny Houthuijs,
- Do Van Dung,
- Dominic Royé,
- Ene Indermitte,
- Eric Lavigne,
- Fatemeh Mayvaneh,
- Fiorella Acquaotta,
- Francesca de’Donato,
- Shilpa Rao,
- Francesco Sera,
- Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar,
- Haidong Kan,
- Hans Orru,
- Ho Kim,
- Iulian-Horia Holobaca,
- Jan Kyselý,
- Joana Madureira,
- Joel Schwartz,
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola,
- Klea Katsouyanni,
- Magali Hurtado Diaz,
- Martina S. Ragettli,
- Masahiro Hashizume,
- Mathilde Pascal,
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho,
- Nicolás Valdés Ortega,
- Niilo Ryti,
- Noah Scovronick,
- Paola Michelozzi,
- Patricia Matus Correa,
- Patrick Goodman,
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva,
- Raanan Raz,
- Rosana Abrutzky,
- Samuel Osorio,
- Tran Ngoc Dang,
- Valentina Colistro,
- Veronika Huber,
- Whanhee Lee,
- Xerxes Seposo,
- Yasushi Honda,
- Yoonhee Kim,
- Yue Leon Guo,
- Michelle L. Bell,
- Shanshan Li
Affiliations
- Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding authors at: Climate, Air Quality Research (CARE) Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
- Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
- Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
- Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
- Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- César De la Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
- Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
- Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
- Fiorella Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
- Francesca de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
- Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
- Iulian-Horia Holobaca
- Faculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
- Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK
- Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
- Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil
- Nicolás Valdés Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Patricia Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
- INSPER, São Paulo, Brazil
- Raanan Raz
- Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
- Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
- Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
- Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
- Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
- Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
- Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Yue Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding authors at: Climate, Air Quality Research (CARE) Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 187
p. 108712
Abstract
Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
