Analysis of the Future of Mobility: The Battery Electric Vehicle Seems Just a Transitory Alternative

Abstract

It is, undoubtedly, a widespread belief that the electric vehicle (EV) is considered sustainable. However, in the manufacturing and retirement phases, EVs do not appear to be as sustainable as internal combustion vehicles (ICVs) and during the use phase, the pollution produced by EVs depends on the source of electricity generation to recharge the batteries. From an economic point of view, EVs do not appear to be competitive compared to ICVs either. However, current market trends push hard on battery EVs (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). This study aims to analyze which of the possible mobility alternatives has more sense to be considered as the option with higher penetration in the future. To this end, four known mobility technologies (ICVs, PHEVs, BEVs, and hydrogen fuel cell EVs or FCEVs) are compared for a mid-size car using published data, through environmental and techno-economic criteria, by applying the analytic hierarchy process method in an objective manner on multiple scenarios. Putting all criteria together, it seems that the ICV alternative is the one receiving the best results in most of the scenarios, except in the case where the environmental criteria have the greatest weight. The BEV solution has almost always turned out to be the worst alternative, but it is the only choice we have right now.

Keywords

• internal combustion engine vehicles
• electric vehicles
• AHP
• pairwise comparison
• plug-in hybrid
• fuel cell