Multivariate Hydrological Modeling Based on Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Water Level Forecasting

Abstract

In the Department of Chocó, flooding poses a recurrent and significant challenge due to heavy rainfall and the dense network of rivers characterizing the region. However, the lack of adequate infrastructure to prevent and predict floods exacerbates this situation. The absence of early warning systems, the scarcity of meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations, and deficiencies in urban planning contribute to the vulnerability of communities to these phenomena. It is imperative to invest in flood prediction and prevention infrastructure, including advanced monitoring systems, the development of hydrological prediction models, and the construction of hydraulic infrastructure, to reduce risk and protect vulnerable communities in Chocó. Additionally, raising public awareness of the associated risks and encouraging the adoption of mitigation and preparedness measures throughout the population are essential. This study introduces a novel approach for the multivariate prediction of hydrological variables, specifically focusing on water level forecasts for two hydrological stations along the Atrato River in Colombia. The model, utilizing a specialized type of recurrent neural network (RNN) called the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, integrates data from hydrological variables, such as the flow, precipitation, and level. With a model architecture featuring four inputs and two outputs, where flow and precipitation serve as inputs and the level serves as the output for each station, the LSTM model is adept at capturing the complex dynamics and cross-correlations among these variables. Validation involves comparing the LSTM model’s performance with linear and nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) models, considering factors such as the estimation error and computational time. Furthermore, this study explores different scenarios for water level prediction, aiming to utilize the proposed approach as an effective flood early warning system.

Keywords

• data analysis
• time-series analysis
• prediction
• recurrent neural network
• flood risk assessment
• nonlinear autoregressive model