Role of Vaccines in Controlling the Spread of COVID-19: A Fractional-Order Model

Abstract

In this paper, we present a fractional-order mathematical model in the Caputo sense to investigate the significance of vaccines in controlling COVID-19. The Banach contraction mapping principle is used to prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Based on the magnitude of the basic reproduction number, we show that the model consists of two equilibrium solutions that are stable. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are locally stably when R01 and R0>1 respectively. We perform numerical simulations, with the significance of the vaccine clearly shown. The changes that occur due to the variation of the fractional order α are also shown. The model has been validated by fitting it to four months of real COVID-19 infection data in Thailand. Predictions for a longer period are provided by the model, which provides a good fit for the data.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• fractional calculus
• vaccine
• mathematical model
• stability analysis
• existence and uniqueness