New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code

Abstract

Grey theory is an approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. In some cases, a grey forecasting model may yield unacceptable forecasting errors. In this work, a new exponential grey prediction model, which is called as EXGM (1, 1), is proposed. By using this model, new cases, deaths and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Turkey is forecast. Numerical results show that EXGM (1, 1) is a model that performs more accurately than the comparison models.

Keywords

• grey systems
• covid-19 predictions
• grey forecasting model
• least squares method