A Simple Nomogram to Predict Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Congestive Heart Failure Undergoing Coronary Angiography

Abstract

Background. Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are vulnerable to contrast-induced kidney injury (CI-AKI), but few prediction models are currently available. Therefore, we aimed to establish a simple nomogram for CI-AKI risk assessment for patients with CHF undergoing coronary angiography. Methods. A total of 1876 consecutive patients with CHF (defined as New York Heart Association functional class II-IV or Killip class II-IV) were enrolled and randomly (2:1) assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort. The endpoint was CI-AKI defined as serum creatinine elevation of ≥0.3 mg/dL or 50% from baseline within the first 48–72 hours following the procedure. Predictors for the simple nomogram were selected by multivariable logistic regression with a stepwise approach. The discriminative power was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and was compared with the classic Mehran score in the validation cohort. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and 1000 bootstrap samples. Results. The incidence of CI-AKI was 9.06% (170) in the total sample, 8.64% (n = 109) in the development cohort, and 9.92% (n = 61) in the validation cohort (P=0.367). The simple nomogram including four predictors (age, intra-aortic balloon pump, acute myocardial infarction, and chronic kidney disease) demonstrated a similar predictive power as the Mehran score (area under the curve: 0.80 vs. 0.75, P=0.061), as well as a well-fitted calibration curve. Conclusions. The present simple nomogram including four predictors is a simple and reliable tool to identify CHF patients at risk of CI-AKI, whereas further external validations are needed.