Towards diverging land prices in agricultural districts? Evidence from Italy before and after the great crisis

Abstract

In recent decades, farmland markets have risen sharply due to their attractiveness as safe investment and savings allocation instruments. This growth has occurred globally at different rates due to the uneven expected returns, and potential land uses in different regions. This paper provides evidence of the convergence of Italian farmland markets between 1990 and 2019 by using data on average land prices with a geographically detailed resolution that considers both administrative and altitude aspects of territories. The analysis combines traditional economic convergence approaches with spatial data exploration techniques. The results are consistent and show that territorial disparities in Italian farmland markets tend to increase over the study period. This proves that divergence patterns reflect the well-established North-South dualism and disparities in socio-economic characteristics.

Keywords

• convergence analysis
• farmland markets
• spatial autocorrelation
• spatial clusters