Determinants of long-term survival in late HIV presenters: The prospective PISCIS cohort study

Abstract

Summary: Background: Late HIV diagnosis (i.e CD4≤350 cells/µL) is associated with poorer outcomes. However, determinants of long-term mortality and factors influencing immune recovery within the first years after antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation are poorly defined. Methods: From PISCIS cohort, we included all HIV-positive adults, two-year survivors after initiating ART between 2005–2019. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality according to the two-year CD4 count. We used Poisson regression. The secondary outcome was incomplete immune recovery (i.e., two-year CD4500 cells/µL, reference population). Overall, 113 patients (4·2%) died. Mortality was higher among LP with two-year CD4 count 200–500 cells/µL (aMRR 1·95[95%CI:1·06-3·61]) or 500 cells/µL, regardless of being initially LP or non-LP (aMRR 1·05[0·50-2·21]). Mortality rates within each two-year CD4 strata were not affected by the initial CD4 count at ART initiation (test-interaction, p = 0·48). The stronger factor influencing immune recovery was the CD4 count at ART initiation. First-line integrase-inhibitor-(INSTI)-based regimens were associated with reduced mortality compared to other regimens (aMRR 0·54[0·31-0·93]) and reduced risk of incomplete immune recovery in LP (aOR 0·70[0·52-0·95]). Interpretation: Two-year immune recovery is a good early predictor of long-term mortality in LP after surviving the first high-risk 2 years. Nearly half experienced a favorable immune recovery with a life expectancy similar to non-LP. INSTI-based regimens were associated with higher rates of successful immune recovery and better survival compared to non-INSTI regimens. Funding: Southern-Denmark University, Danish AIDS-foundation, and Region of Southern Denmark.

Keywords

• HIV
• Late presenters
• Delayed HIV diagnosis
• Immune recovery
• Immune response
• Integrase inhibitors