Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Changes and Adaptation Strategies in the Transboundary Gandaki River Basin

Abstract

Global climate change poses many adverse impacts and risks, which affect the livelihoods of local farmers. This study has assessed farmers’ perceptions of climate changes and adaptation strategies in the transboundary Gandaki River Basin (GRB). A total of 639 households were surveyed purposively from different physiographic regions, ranging from the lowland plain to the high Mountain region of the GRB. These surveyed perceptions were analyzed using a binary logistic regression (BLR) model. The results show that the significant variables determining the climate change perceptions are family size (p = 0.004), total number of livestock owned by the household (p = 0.000), availability of irrigation facility (p = 0.000), temperature change (p = 0.007), precipitation change (p = 0.000), and household head’s age (p = 0.044), education level (p = 0.000), and profession (p = 0.003). The results were also analyzed by physiographic region. Farmers in the Mountain region perceived the household head’s education (p = 0.008) and profession (p = 0.009), precipitation change (p = 0.028), climate-induced disease/pests (p = 0.042), and impact on vegetation (p = 0.044) as significant variables. Significant variables in the Hill region were found to include the household head’s education (p = 0.029) and profession (p = 0.043), lack of irrigation facility (p = 0.029), precipitation change (p = 0.018), increased drought (p = 0.018), and decreased agricultural production (p = 0.025). Similarly, farmers in the Tarai region noticed the lack of irrigation facility (p = 0.011), temperature change (p = 0.042), precipitation change (p = 0.017), impact on stable crops (p = 0.043), and decreased agricultural production as important variables. Likewise, in the Gangetic Plain (GP) region, the household head’s education (p = 0.010), total number of livestock (p = 0.037), lack of irrigation facility (p = 0.006), precipitation change (p = 0.003), increased drought (p = 0.002), and decreased agricultural production (p = 0.001) were found to be significant variables. The determinant factors vary between the different regions due to the geography and overall socio-economic factors of the respondent. Combining the scientific data with the farmers’ perceptions may help to clarify how climate change affects the farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to better enhance their livelihood.

Keywords

• farmers’ perceptions
• climate change
• binary logistic regression
• Gandaki River Basin