Tumor-immune ecosystem dynamics define an individual Radiation Immune Score to predict pan-cancer radiocurability

Abstract

Radiotherapy efficacy is the result of radiation-mediated cytotoxicity coupled with stimulation of antitumor immune responses. We develop an in silico 3-dimensional agent-based model of diverse tumor-immune ecosystems (TIES) represented as anti- or pro-tumor immune phenotypes. We validate the model in 10,469 patients across 31 tumor types by demonstrating that clinically detected tumors have pro-tumor TIES. We then quantify the likelihood radiation induces antitumor TIES shifts toward immune-mediated tumor elimination by developing the individual Radiation Immune Score (iRIS). We show iRIS distribution across 31 tumor types is consistent with the clinical effectiveness of radiotherapy, and in combination with a molecular radiosensitivity index (RSI) combines to predict pan-cancer radiocurability. We show that iRIS correlates with local control and survival in a separate cohort of 59 lung cancer patients treated with radiation. In combination, iRIS and RSI predict radiation-induced TIES shifts in individual patients and identify candidates for radiation de-escalation and treatment escalation. This is the first clinically and biologically validated computational model to simulate and predict pan-cancer response and outcomes via the perturbation of the TIES by radiotherapy.

Keywords

• Radiosensitivity
• Immune infiltrate
• Agent-based model
• Mathematical model
• Personalized medicine