Ältere Ein- und Zweifamilienhausbestände im Umbruch. Eine Clusteranalyse zur Identifizierung regionaler Betroffenheiten in Nordrhein-Westfalen

Abstract

Within the interplay of demographic factors, characteristics of the housing stock, spatial parameters and the resulting conditions on the housing market in many municipalities a declining demand for single family homes built in the 1950s to 1970s goes along with an increasing supply in this segment of the housing market. At this, however, strong regional disparities can be observed. In this paper, a concept of indicators on the municipal level to estimate the situation of the 1950s to the 1970s single-family homes is presented. Based on the example of North Rhine-Westphalia in a first step regional spatial patterns are identified based on some of these indicators. The focus of the paper is on the subsequent synthesis of the indicators by means of a cluster analysis (two-step method). As a result, six clusters with similar developments and challenges regarding the 1950s to 1970s single-family-homes stocks are identified and the operative requirements for these clusters are discussed. From the methodological perspective the paper shows that the cluster analysis by the means of the two-step method is a promising alternative to the Ward method frequently adopted in spatial sciences.

Keywords

• Single-family homes
• Demography
• Housing market
• Spatial patterns
• Indicators
• Cluster analyses