Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model

Abstract

We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model.

Keywords

• contribution margin
• cost volume profit
• fixed costs
• operating income
• operating leverage
• sticky costs