The outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and normal serum alpha fetoprotein levels

Abstract

Background: Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nevertheless, few studies have investigated the prognostic factors of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 2198 patients with HCC and normal serum AFP levels (<20 ng/mL) from 2007 to 2020. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method, and analyses of the prognostic factors were performed using a Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Among the enrolled patients, 1385 (63%) patients were in the low-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels ≤7 ng/mL), and 813 (37%) patients were in the high-normal AFP group (serum AFP levels between 7 and 20 ng/mL). The high-normal AFP group had poorer liver functional reserve, more multiple tumors, and smaller tumor size compared to those in the low-normal AFP group. After a median follow-up of 32.4 months, 942 patients died, and the 5-year OS rate was 54.4%. The 5-year OS rates were 57.4% and 49.8% in the low-normal AFP group and high-normal AFP group, respectively (p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis showed the independent prognostic factors of poor OS were no anti-viral therapy, advanced albumin-bilirubin grades, the presence of vascular invasion, tumor size ≥5 cm, and non-curative treatment modalities. Serum AFP levels were not associated with OS according to the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Liver functional reserve, anti-viral therapy, tumor size, vascular invasion, and treatment modalities, determined the outcomes of HCC patients with normal serum AFP levels, but serum AFP levels did not.

Keywords

• Albumin-bilirubin
• Normal alpha fetoprotein
• Liver cancer
• Outcomes