Identification of Tourism Scenarios in Turkey Based on Futures Study Approach

Abstract

This study aims to identify the plausible scenarios of tourism in Antalya, Turkey. For this purpose, the drivers and key factors of the research were first identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing Turkish tourism experts. Then these factors were screened using binomial nonparametric test and eight factors were eliminated from the 19 key factors. Two key factors of government policy in the tourism field and value of country currency were selected using cross impact analysis technique in order to write plausible scenarios. Based on these two uncertainties, four scenarios of luxury tourism, cheap tourism, tourism deterioration and unplanned tourism were identified.

Keywords

• tourism
• plausible future
• soft systems methodology
• micmac