China’s new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

China’s economic transformation and new growth pattern have significant implications for energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Using an extended version of a large computable general equilibrium model of China, we explore alternative futures for the Chinese economy and its energy needs over the period from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that encouraging household consumption and accelerating economic transition from investment-led to service-led growth will boost China’s economic growth. Capping coal consumption will improve China’s energy consumption structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The simulation exercises imply that, with a well-designed policy, the Chinese government can meet the challenges of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits, and energy security. Moreover, the Chinese government’s goal of peaking carbon emissions at 2030 is achievable. Keywords: Dynamic computable general equilibrium model, Economic transition, Energy demand, Greenhouse gas emissions, Economic effects