Healthy working life expectancy of adults aged 50 years old in China

Abstract

BackgroundWith the increasing aging population in China, there is a significant shortage of labor force. Delaying retirement age has become a potential method to alleviate this labor shortage. ObjectiveTo estimate the healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) of individuals aged 50 years old in China. MethodsThis study was based on data from four waves (2011—2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). HWLE was estimated for the overall sample of individuals aged 50 years old and above and stratified by sex, educational attainment, marital status, occupation, Hukou type, and region by using continuous-time multistate modelling. ResultsA total of 50991 person-times aged ≥ 50 years and older were included in the study. The average total life expectancy of the Chinese population aged 50 years old was 29.72 years (95%CI: 29.28, 30.12 years), with a HWLE of 14.05 years (95%CI: 13.76, 14.33 years). The remaining years lived in the states of healthy but not working, not healthy but working, and not healthy and not working were 8.82 years (95%CI: 8.53, 9.15 years), 2.54 years (95%CI: 2.41, 2.68 years),and 4.30 years (95%CI: 4.08, 4.54 years), respectively. The HWLE (95%CI) of individuals in the baseline states of healthy and working, healthy but not working, not healthy but working, and not healthy and not working were 14.97 (14.69, 15.23), 10.86 (10.52, 11.22), 11.73 (11.31, 12.09), and 9.51 (9.09, 9.97) years, respectively. Additionally, women had a higher total life expectancy (95%CI) than men [31.84 (31.10, 32.54) years vs 27.98 (27.35, 28.50) years], but a lower HWLE than men [12.47 (12.12, 12.82) years vs 15.62 (15.23, 15.98) years]. There was no difference in total life expectancy between rural residents and urban residents [29.43 (28.88, 29.97) years vs 30.31 (29.47, 31.02) years], but rural residents had a higher HWLE than urban residents [15.74 (15.39, 16.10) years vs 11.38 (10.97, 11.73) years]. Residents in East China [14.66 (14.22, 15.06) years] and Central China [14.15 (13.86, 14.43) years] had a higher HWLE than residents in West China [13.61 (13.27, 13.98) years] and Northeast China [13.06 (12.51, 13.63) years]. ConclusionThe HWLE of Chinese residents supports the policy of raising the retirement age. There are differences in HWLE levels between urban and rural areas, as well as across different regions. Providing more flexible employment opportunities for older adults can help mitigate the labor shortages caused by population aging.

Keywords

• healthy working life expectancy
• population aging
• multistate model
• labor force