Effects of Temperature, Precipitation, and Sunshine on Cold-Tolerant Wheat Yield Under Warming Trends: A 20-Year Study in Hokkaido, Japan

Abstract

To clarify the adaptation strategies of cold-tolerant wheat against global warming, this study examined the effects of daily temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration on wheat yield in Hokkaido, Japan, over 13 years (2011–2023). Yield components were also analyzed over 20 years (2004–2023). The number of snow-cover days decreased by about 24 days over the 20-year period. As a result, the growth of overwintered wheat accelerated, with the heading and maturity of plants advancing by about 8 and 5 days, respectively, and the grain-filling period extending from about 44 to about 48 days. Multiple regression analysis was conducted using wheat yield as the objective variable and weather conditions as explanatory variables. Three weather conditions were selected: precipitation for 8 days from 27 March, sunshine hours for 8 days from 21 March, and sunshine hours for 12 days from 13 June, which yielded a coefficient of determination of 0.953. Despite the highest mean summer temperatures on record being registered in 2023, high yields were ensured by the number of sunshine hours, which were approximately 1.5 times the normally recorded hours. This highlights the importance of this parameter in mitigating the impact of high summer temperatures.

Keywords

• cold-tolerant wheat
• global warming adaptation
• snow-cover reduction
• wheat phenology changes
• grain-filling period extension
• high summer temperature mitigation