Forecasting Summertime Surface Temperature and Precipitation in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: Sensitivity of the WRF Model to Land Cover Changes

Abstract

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Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration [land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)] of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

Keywords

• Mexico City
• weather forecasting
• land cover change
• convective processes
• urban weather
• surface processes