Meteorological conditions during periods of low wind speed and insolation in Germany: The role of weather regimes

Abstract

Abstract Renewable power generation from wind and solar energy is strongly dependent on the weather. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to weather variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind speed and insolation “Dunkelflauten”, the German word for “dark wind lulls”. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi‐stationary, recurrent and persistent large‐scale circulation patterns that explain multi‐day atmospheric variability (5–15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterized by high‐pressure situations in the North Atlantic‐European region. We find that Dunkelflauten in Germany occur mainly in winter when the solar power output is low due to the seasonal cycle of solar irradiance and wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high‐pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand, and would present a particular challenge as space heating becomes electrified in the future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight into the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.

Keywords

• Dunkelflauten
• energy demand
• predictability
• renewable energies
• subseasonal prediction
• weather regimes