Quantifying the Influences of Driving Factors on Land Surface Temperature during 2003–2018 in China Using Convergent Cross Mapping Method

Abstract

The relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and environmental factors is complex and nonlinear. To determine these relationships for China, this study analyzed the driving effects of air temperature, vegetation index, soil moisture, net surface radiation, precipitation, aerosols, evapotranspiration, and water vapor on LST based on remote-sensing and reanalysis data from 2003–2018, using a convergent cross-mapping method. During the study period, air temperature and net surface radiation were the dominant drivers of LST with a cross-mapping skill above 0.9. Vegetation index and evapotranspiration were the secondary drivers of LST with a cross-mapping skill that was higher than 0.5. Except for air temperature and net surface radiation, the direction and strength of the effects of the driving factors on LST were related to the climate type. The effects of air temperature and net radiation on LST diminished from north to south, indicating that LST was more sensitive to air temperature and net radiation in energy-limited regions. However, the effects of vegetation index and evapotranspiration on LST varied significantly across climate zones; that is, positive effects were mostly in non-monsoonal zones and negative effects were primarily in monsoonal zones. Our results quantified the driving role of environmental factors on LST and provided a comprehensive understanding of LST dynamics.

Keywords

• land surface temperature
• driving factors
• causality
• convergent cross mapping