Prediction of COVID-19 spread with models in different patterns: A case study of Russia

Abstract

This study deals with a mathematical model that examines the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This model has been handled with different processes such as deterministic, stochastic, and deterministic–stochastic. First of all, a detailed analysis is presented for the deterministic model, which includes the positivity of the solution, the basic reproduction number, the disease, and endemic equilibrium points. Then, for the stochastic model, we investigate under which conditions, the solution exists and is unique. Later, model is reconsidered with the help of the piecewise derivative, which can combine deterministic and stochastic processes. Numerical simulations are presented for all these processes. Finally, the model has been modified with the rate indicator function. The model presenting these four different situations is compared with the real data in Russia. According to the results obtained from these situations, the model that is obtained by adding the rate indicator function predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Russia more accurately. Thus, it is concluded that the model with the rate indicator function presents more realistic approach than the previous ones.

Keywords

• covid-19 spread
• fractional differentiation and integration
• rate indicator function