Projected Wind Energy Maximum Potential in Lithuania

Abstract

Harnessing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to implement climate mitigation measures. This study aims to assess whether it is feasible to implement an energy greening plan in Lithuania in the 21st century, hypothetically by using only wind farms, where the entire permitted area is developed with them. The wind turbine chosen for the study is a 3 MW wind turbine, installed at a height of 100 m. Wind speeds were estimated using the most up-to-date generation of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenario projections. The most likely climate model, SSP2-4.5, shows that the wind speed in Lithuania is more likely to decrease slightly over the 21st century. The decrease could be as high as 3% in the coastal region, while in the eastern part of the country, which is the furthest from the sea, the decrease will likely be around 1.5%. Analysis of the projected data shows that the number of days with wind speeds below the cut-in speed is decreasing, while the number of days with wind speeds higher than the cut-off speed is increasing slightly. However, the number of days on which the operating conditions of the wind farm are met has changed only slightly. The results show that the potential maximum wind power generation exceeds Lithuania’s renewable energy needs by at least three times, suggesting that the development of onshore wind farms in Lithuania can help to achieve the energy greening plans.

Keywords

• climate change
• wind energy
• projections
• renewables
• shared-socioeconomic pathways