Short-Term Evapotranspiration Forecasting of Rubber (<i>Hevea brasiliensis</i>) Plantations in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China

Abstract

Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations have high water consumption through evapotranspiration, which can contribute to water scarcity. In addition, there is a lack of spatial observation data and estimation methods for evapotranspiration (ET) for rubber plantations. To alleviate the water stress of expanding rubber plantations caused by seasonal drought in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China, an up to 7 days crop evapotranspiration (ETc) forecast method, “Kc-ET0” for rubber plantations with limited meteorological data, was proposed by using rubber crop coefficient Kc and public weather forecasts. The results showed that the average absolute error (MAE) of forecasted ETc was 0.68 mm d−1, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.85 mm d−1, and the average correlation coefficient (R) was 0.69 during the rainy season, while during the dry season these metrics were 0.52 mm d−1, 0.68 mm d−1, and 0.85, respectively. The accuracy of ETc forecast in the dry season was higher. Additionally, Kc was the main factor influencing the accuracy of rubber plantations ETc forecast, while the accuracy of the temperature forecast and the chosen Hargreaves-Samani (HS) model were also considerable. Our results suggested that the “Kc-ET0” short-term rubber plantation ETc forecasting method shows good performance and acceptable accuracy, especially in the dry season. The study provides an important basis for creating ET-based irrigation scheduling for improving regional-scale water management in high water consumption rubber plantations.

Keywords

• crop evapotranspiration
• rubber plantations
• public weather forecasts
• crop coefficient
• Hargreaves-Samani (HS) model