A Fast and Reliable Method to Interpret Short-Term Mortality in Perforated Peptic Ulcer: Red Cell Distribution Width is Sensitive and Specific

Abstract

Introduction. Peptic ulcer is an important health problem worldwide with a prevalence of around 5%. Peptic ulcer perforation is a potentially mortal complication of peptic ulcer disease. We aimed to investigate the potential use of red cell distribution width as a prognostic marker in peptic ulcer perforation. Methods. The files, operation notes, biochemical and hematological parameters, and prognosis of patients who were operated for a peptic ulcer perforation were reviewed in a retrospective cohort study. The relation of red cell distribution width (RDW) to main outcome in-hospital mortality was assessed. Results. The mean age of the 172 patients was 40 ± 17.89. There were 158 (92%) males and 14 (8%) females. The in-hospital mortality was 8.7% (15/172). The median RDW in the group with mortality was 15.00 (interquartile range (IQR): 14.30–17.20) compared with the median RDW in the group with no mortality as 13.2 (IQR: 12.80–14.00, p≤0.001). Receiver operator characteristic curves were plotted for RDW to identify nonsurvivors and yielded a significant area under the curve as 0.812 (95% confidence interval: 0.682–0.942). The sensitivity and specificity of RDW at a cutoff value of 14.25% were calculated with an accuracy of 81.98 (95% confidence interval: 75.40–87.41) as 80.00 (51.91–95.67) and 82.17 (75.27–87.81), respectively. Conclusion. Increased RDW may be of use to interpret mortality in patients with peptic ulcer perforation.