Cox Regression Based Modeling of Functional Connectivity and Treatment Outcome for Relapse Prediction and Disease Subtyping in Substance Use Disorder

Abstract

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Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has become one of the most widely used noninvasive neuroimaging technique in research of cognitive neurosciences and of neural mechanisms of neuropsychiatric/neurological diseases. A primary goal of fMRI-based neuroimaging studies is to identify biomarkers for brain-behavior relationship and ultimately perform individualized treatment outcome prognosis. However, the concern of inadequate validation and the nature of small sample sizes are associated with fMRI-based neuroimaging studies, both of which hinder the translation from scientific findings to clinical practice. Therefore, the current paper presents a modeling approach to predict time-dependent prognosis with fMRI-based brain metrics and follow-up data. This prediction modeling is a combination of seed-based functional connectivity and voxel-wise Cox regression analysis with built-in nested cross-validation, which has been demonstrated to be able to provide robust and unbiased model performance estimates. Demonstrated with a cohort of treatment-seeking cocaine users from psychosocial treatment programs with 6-month follow-up, our proposed modeling method is capable of identifying brain regions and related functional circuits that are predictive of certain follow-up behavior, which could provide mechanistic understanding of neuropsychiatric/neurological disease and clearly shows neuromodulation implications and can be used for individualized prognosis and treatment protocol design.

Keywords

• prediction modeling
• fMRI
• treatment outcome
• Cox regression
• functional connectivity
• neuromodulation implications