Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Numerous attempts have been made to understand the connection between extreme weather and Arctic amplification (AA), and it is still disputed whether the mechanism is the elongation and deceleration of planetary-scale waves. In this study, we provide further evidence that the Arctic’s rapid warming is influencing extreme precipitation in the Northern Hermisphere based on observation and model outputs, and elucidate the underlying dynamic mechanisms. We find that AA has a significant positive correlation with extreme precipitation, both in the past (1901–2018) and in the future (by 2100). Moreover, observations reveal that, with the enhancement of AA since the mid-1980s, the planetary-scale wave amplitude has increased significantly at 0.66°/decade. This is associated with a negative Northern Hemisphere annular mode and an increased duration of weather patterns, resulting in more extreme precipitation events. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP585 scenario, extreme precipitation increases by 8.7% along with wave amplitude increase of 7.9° by 2100.

Keywords

• Arctic amplification
• extreme weather
• dynamic mechanisms
• CMIP6