Vegetation Trends Due to Land Cover Changes on the Tibetan Plateau for 2015–2100 Largely Explained by Forest

Abstract

Vegetation changes on the Tibetan Plateau are indicative of the dual impacts of climate change and human activities, with satellite data offering a potent tool for monitoring these alterations. However, the impacts of future land cover change on vegetation changes on the Tibetan Plateau under different climate scenarios remain unclear. This study systematically investigates vegetation trends and their contributions driven by land cover changes under eight future climate scenarios from 2015 to 2100 using remotely sensed land cover and NDVI data. We estimated consistent NDVI data for land cover changes under the climate scenarios and quantified the vegetation trends and the relative contributions of each land cover type using a relative importance matrix. The study found that (1) Grasslands will remain the dominant land cover, increasing by 4.13% from 2015 to 2100, while Forests, particularly Woody Savannas and Mixed Forests, will significantly influence vegetation trends, with maximum contributions of 48–55% across seasons. (2) Vegetation trends under climate scenarios exhibit greening, browning followed by greening, fluctuation, and browning patterns, with greening being predominant. (3) Forests dominate vegetation trends in most scenarios, especially under pathways of sustainability (SSP1) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5). (4) The seasonal patterns of vegetation changes due to land cover changes are generally similar to the annual one; variations in land cover changes under different scenarios lead to differences in vegetation seasonal patterns. Our research promotes the understanding of the interaction between future land cover changes and vegetation changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Keywords

• land cover change
• vegetation trend
• future climate scenarios
• land–atmosphere interactions
• Tibetan Plateau