Anisotropic Diffusion for Improved Crime Prediction in Urban China

Abstract

As a major social issue during urban development, crime is closely related to socioeconomic, geographic, and environmental factors. Traditional crime prediction models reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of crime risks, but usually ignore the environmental context of the geographic areas where crimes occur. Therefore, it is difficult to enhance the spatial accuracy of crime prediction. We propose the use of anisotropic diffusion to include environmental factors of the evaluated geographic area in the traditional crime prediction model, thereby aiming to predict crime occurrence at a finer scale regarding spatiotemporal aspects and environmental similarity. Under different evaluation criteria, the average prediction accuracy of the proposed method is 28.8%, improving prediction accuracy by 77.5%, as compared to the traditional methods. The proposed method can provide strong policing support in terms of conducting targeted hotspot policing and fostering sustainable community development.

Keywords

• crime
• spatiotemporal prediction
• anisotropic diffusion
• environmental characteristics
• urban China