Deploying solar photovoltaic energy first in carbon-intensive regions brings gigatons more carbon mitigations to 2060

Shi Chen; Xi Lu; Chris P. Nielsen; Michael B. McElroy; Gang He; Shaohui Zhang; Kebin He; Xiu Yang; Fang Zhang; Jiming Hao

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01006-x

Communications Earth & Environment (Oct 2023)

Deploying solar photovoltaic energy first in carbon-intensive regions brings gigatons more carbon mitigations to 2060

Shi Chen,
Xi Lu,
Chris P. Nielsen,
Michael B. McElroy,
Gang He,
Shaohui Zhang,
Kebin He,
Xiu Yang,
Fang Zhang,
Jiming Hao

Affiliations

Shi Chen: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University
Xi Lu: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University
Chris P. Nielsen: Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University
Michael B. McElroy: Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University
Gang He: Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, City University of New York
Shaohui Zhang: School of Economics & Management, Beihang University
Kebin He: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University
Xiu Yang: The Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University
Fang Zhang: School of Public Policy & Management, Tsinghua University
Jiming Hao: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01006-x
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 4, no. 1
pp. 1 – 14

Abstract

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Abstract The global surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) power has featured spatial specialization from manufacturing to installation along its industrial chain. Yet how to improve PV climate benefits are under-investigated. Here we explore the evolution of net greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation of PV industry from 2009–2060 with a spatialized-dynamic life-cycle-analysis. Results suggest a net GHG mitigation of 1.29 Gt CO2-equivalent from 2009–2019, achieved by 1.97 Gt of mitigation from installation minus 0.68 Gt of emissions from manufacturing. The highest net GHG mitigation among future manufacturing-installation-scenarios to meet 40% global power demand in 2060 is as high as 204.7 Gt from 2020–2060, featuring manufacturing concentrated in Europe and North America and prioritized PV installations in carbon-intensive nations. This represents 97.5 Gt more net mitigation than the worst-case scenario, equivalent to 1.9 times 2020 global GHG emissions. The results call for strategic international coordination of PV industrial chain to increase GHG net mitigation.

Published in Communications Earth & Environment

ISSN: 2662-4435 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science: Geology; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Environmental sciences
Website: https://www.nature.com/commsenv/

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