Environment International (Oct 2019)
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- Jae Young Lee,
- Ho Kim,
- Antonio Gasparrini,
- Ben Armstrong,
- Michelle L. Bell,
- Francesco Sera,
- Eric Lavigne,
- Rosana Abrutzky,
- Shilu Tong,
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva,
- Patricia Matus Correa,
- Nicolas Valdes Ortega,
- Haidong Kan,
- Samuel Osorio Garcia,
- Jan Kyselý,
- Aleš Urban,
- Hans Orru,
- Ene Indermitte,
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola,
- Niilo R.I. Ryti,
- Mathilde Pascal,
- Patrick G. Goodman,
- Ariana Zeka,
- Paola Michelozzi,
- Matteo Scortichini,
- Masahiro Hashizume,
- Yasushi Honda,
- Magali Hurtado,
- Julio Cruz,
- Xerxes Seposo,
- Baltazar Nunes,
- João Paulo Teixeira,
- Aurelio Tobias,
- Carmen Íñiguez,
- Bertil Forsberg,
- Christofer Åström,
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera,
- Martina S. Ragettli,
- Yue-Liang Leon Guo,
- Bing-Yu Chen,
- Antonella Zanobetti,
- Joel Schwartz,
- Tran Ngoc Dang,
- Dung Do Van,
- Fetemeh Mayvaneh,
- Ala Overcenco,
- Shanshan Li,
- Yuming Guo
Affiliations
- Jae Young Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Corresponding author.
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Ben Armstrong
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Michelle L. Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Francesco Sera
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Eric Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; School of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghi Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho
- Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Climate Change Cluster, Faculty of Sciences, University of Technology–Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
- Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Patricia Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Nicolas Valdes Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Samuel Osorio Garcia
- Hospital Vista Hermosa, Bogotá, Colombia
- Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Niilo R.I. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
- Patrick G. Goodman
- School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin, Ireland
- Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
- Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Matteo Scortichini
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Science, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
- Magali Hurtado
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
- Julio Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
- Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
- Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal
- João Paulo Teixeira
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal; EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, University of Valencia, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FiSABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, Spain
- Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University, NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Bing-Yu Chen
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University, NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Tran Ngoc Dang
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; The Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
- Dung Do Van
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
- Fetemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
- Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of R. Moldova, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
- Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 131
Abstract
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. Keywords: Projection, Mortality, Climate change, Regional variation, Vulnerability
