Age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence of multiple sclerosis over twenty years in Lorraine, France

Abstract

Abstract Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system. An increase in MS incidence over time is reported in several regions of the world. We aimed to describe the evolution of the annual MS incidence in the Lorraine region, France, from 1996 to 2015 and to analyze potential components of a possible change by a temporal effect of age at MS onset, MS onset period, and birth cohort, overall and for each sex. Cases were identified from ReLSEP, a population-based registry of MS cases living in Lorraine, northeastern France, with MS onset between 1996 and 2015. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to describe trends in MS incidence. Annual age- and sex-standardized incidences were relatively stable: 6.76/100 000 population (95%CI [5.76–7.91]) in 1996 and 6.78/100 000 (95%CI [5.72–7.97]) in 2015. The incidence ratio between women and men was 2.4. For all time periods, the peak incidence occurred between ages 25 and 35 years. Age-period–adjusted cohort and age-cohort–adjusted period analyses did not reveal a period or cohort effect. The incidence of MS remained stable over the study period in Lorraine, and we could not identify any particular effect of disease onset period or birth period on this evolution.