Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Abstract

Recent years were characterized by an increase in spatially co-occurring hot, wet or dry extreme events around the globe. In this study we analyze data from multi-model climate projections to analyze the occurrence of spatially compounding events and area affected in future climates under scenarios at +1.5 ^∘ C, +2.0 ^∘ C, +3.0 ^∘ C and higher levels of global warming using Earth System Model simulations from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Since spatially compounding extreme events can strongly amplify societal impacts as economic supply chains are increasingly interdependent, we want to highlight that the world’s breadbasket regions are projected to be particularly affected by an increase in spatially co-occurring hot, wet or dry extreme events, posing risks to the global food security. We show that the spatial extent of top-producing agricultural regions being potentially threatened by climate extremes will increase drastically if global mean temperatures shift from +1.5 ^∘ C to +2.0 ^∘ C. Further we identify a large increase in the projected global land area concurrently affected by hot, wet or dry extremes with increased global warming posing risk to other industries and sectors in addition to the agricultural sector.

Keywords

• spatially compounding hot
• wet
• or dry extremes
• breadbasket regions
• cropping area
• CMIP6