Bitcoin: a Ponzi scheme or an emerging inflation-fighting asset?

Abstract

Under the dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the excessive stimulation of monetary policy continuously pushes up global inflation (INF). Therefore, this article explores whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe haven for INF. We apply the rolling-window Granger causality test to solve the issue of parameter instability in vector autoregression (VAR) systems and investigate the time-varying interaction between INF and Bitcoin price (BP). The negative influence of INF on BP means a high inflation shock causes BP to decline, indicating that Bitcoin cannot be a safe asset against INF. This is because investors have decreased their willingness to hold Bitcoin under the high INF expectations and cause BP to fall. This finding is not supported by the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, emphasising that INF positively impacts BP. Conversely, BP has positive and negative impacts on INF. The positive effect highlights the effectiveness of Bitcoin in predicting INF fluctuations, but economic factors could undermine this effectiveness. In the context of economic stagnation and market turmoil, investors can adjust their portfolio investments based on Bitcoin. The government should utilise the trend of BP to regulate the dynamics of INF to reduce uncertainty in the financial system. First published online 30 August 2024

Keywords

• Bitcoin price
• inflation
• rolling-window
• causal relationship