Heliyon (Apr 2024)
A CMIP6 multi-model based analysis of potential climate change effects on watershed runoff using SWAT model: A case study of kunhar river basin, Pakistan
Abstract
The hydrological regimes of watersheds might be drastically altered by climate change, a majority of Pakistan's watersheds are experiencing problems with water quality and quantity as a result precipitation changes and temperature, necessitating evaluation and alterations to management strategies. In this study, the regional water security in northern Pakistan is examined about anthropogenic climate change on runoff in the Kunhar River Basin (KRB), a typical river in northern Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and flow durarion curve (FDC). Nine general circulation models (GCMs) were successfully utilized following bias correction under two latest IPCC shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. Correlation coefficients (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) are all above 0.75. The conclusions demonstrate that the SWAT model precisely simulates the runoff process in the KRB on monthly and daily timescales. For the two emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the mean annual precipitation is predicted to rise by 3.08 % and 5.86 %, respectively, compared to the 1980–2015 baseline. The forecasted rise in mean daily high temperatures is expected to range from 2.08 °C to 3.07 °C, while the anticipated increase in mean daily low temperatures is projected to fall within the range of 2.09 °C–3.39 °C, spanning the years 2020–2099. Under the two SSPs scenarios, annual runoff is estimated to increase by 5.47 % and 7.60 % due to climate change during the same period. Future socioeconomic growth will be supported by a sufficient water supply made possible by the rise in runoff. However, because of climate change, there is a greater possibility of flooding because of increases in both rainfall and runoff. As a result, flood control and development plans for KRB must consider the climate change's possible effects. There is a chance that the peak flow will move backwards relative to the baseline.
