A proposed modified SEIQR epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 spreading in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The key aim of this paper is to construct a modified version of the SEIQR essential disease dynamics model for the COVID-19 emergence. The modified SEIQR pandemic model takes a groundbreaking approach to evaluate and monitor the COVID-19 epidemic. The complex studies presented in this paper are based on real-world data from Saudi Arabia. A reproduction number and a systematic stability analysis are included in the new version of SEIQR model dynamics. Using the Jacobian linearization process, we can obtain the domain of the solution and the state of equilibrium based on the modified SEIQR model. The equilibrium and its importance have been identified, and the disease-free stability of the equilibrium has been investigated. The reproduction number was calculated using internal metrics, and the global stability of the current model's equilibrium was demonstrated using Lyapunov's stability theorem. To see how well the SEIQR proposed model went, it was compared to real COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia. According to the results, the new SEIQR proposed model is a good match for researching the spread of epidemics like COVID-19. In the end, we presented an optimal protocol to prevent the dissemination of COVID-19. Staying at home and transporting sick people as far as possible to a safe region is the most effective strategy to prevent COVID-19 spread. It is critical to offer infected people safe and effective treatment, as well as antibiotics and nutrients to non-affected people. To detect confirmed infections, we must provide more effective and reliable diagnostic methods. Furthermore, increasing understanding of how to recognize the disease, its symptoms, and how to confirm the infection.

Keywords

• SEIQR model
• COVID-19
• Reproduction
• Jacobian matrix
• Lyapunov stability
• Number