The effect of daily mean temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease and the source of regional heterogeneity in Chongqing, China, 2010–2019

Abstract

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious infectious disease which has become a public health problem. A multi-regional study was conducted in this study to explore the relationship between temperature and HFMD in different regions and the source of heterogeneity, and further detect the effect modifiers such as socio-economic factors, medical and health factors and meteorological factors. Methods: The data on daily reported HFMD cases and meteorological data from 2010 to 2019 in Chongqing were collected. Thirty-eight districts and counties of Chongqing were divided into 6 regions. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the effect of daily mean temperature on HFMD at region level with the pooled effect estimates from multivariate meta-regression model analysis. Stratified analyses by gender, age and children’s type were also conducted. Potential modifiers were considered in meta regression to explore the source of heterogeneity. Results: There were nonlinear relationships with an inverted V-shape between temperature and HFMD. A maximum cumulative relative risk (CRR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12–1.34) peaked at 23.8 °C, and the risk appeared immediately and lasted for the whole 14 days. Compared with other groups, warm temperature had a stronger effect on children aged 0–1 and scattered children, while cold temperature had a stronger effect on female, children aged 3–6 and childcare children with an M-shape. We found that socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors were significantly associated with heterogeneity. Density of medical technical personnel, urbanization rate and density of health care institutions were the main modifiers for explaining heterogeneity of 26.10%, 24.90% and 24.86% respectively which were revealed by meta-analysis. Conclusions: There was a significant nonlinear correlation between temperature and HFMD. Compared with other groups, children aged 0–1 and scattered children were more susceptible to warm temperature, while female, children aged 3–6 and childcare children were more susceptible to cold temperature. Socio-economic factors, medical health factors and meteorological factors may be the source of the heterogeneity. Therefore, local governments should consider different temperature–HFMD relationships between different regions and populations when formulating appropriate preventive measures.

Keywords

• hand, foot and mouth disease
• temperature-disease relationship
• distributed lag non-linear model
• regional heterogeneity