Assessment of climate change impact on sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) production and adaptation strategies in the western zone of Tamil Nadu

Abstract

This study examines the possible effects of climate change on sorghum in the western zone (WZ) comprising Coimbatore, Tirupur, and Erode districts of Tamil Nadu. The DSSAT crop simulation model was used to simulate sorghum yields with considering various planting dates and amounts of fertilizer application. The downscaled CCSM4 climate model data was utilized for the historical baseline period spanning from 1991 to 2020, as well as for future projected data from 2021 to 2099, under the RCP 4.5 scenarios. The key findings indicate that there is a projected yield decline range of -1.3% to 12.5% for the near century (2021-2040), -6.2% to -23.7% for the mid-century (2041-2070), and -12.6% to -30.5% for the end century (2071-2099). The sorghum yield experiences a high decrease at the end of the century (276.83 kg ha-1), mid-century (178.16 kg ha-1), and lastly in the near century (89.4 kg ha-1). The study revealed that a enhanced fertilizer application can have a minor positive effect on sorghum productivity. The study underscores the significant threat that climate change poses to food security in Tamil Nadu and emphasizes the need for adaptation strategies to protect agricultural productivity.

Keywords

• Sorghum
• CERES-sorghum
• Calibration and validation
• Climate change impact
• RCP 4.5
• Adaptation strategies