UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION IN SHIP REPAIR SPECIFICATION

Abstract

The paper deals with uncertainties in ship repair specifications and their impact on docking duration. In some cases, on ships, repair specifications mention defects that are established by the crew when the ship is under exploitation. In the other part of the repair specifications, prepositions mentioned possible problems. Their current condition is determined when the ship is in dry dock, and they are considered indefinite. The paper analyses ten of the most common uncertainties in ship repair connected to hull condition, the condition of its underwater parts, steering gear mechanisms and machinery, and deck equipment. The evaluation of the impact on dry docking duration is done by the GUM method. On the basis of this method, the probability of clear information about ship repair is assumed to be 95%. The combined standard is evaluated with a safety coefficient of c = 1,00. The final result of the uncertainty evaluation for the first case is 3.70±7.45%, and for the second case it is 5.30±11.2%. Schematically, the Gant chart and GUM evaluation show the impact on ship repair duration and ship repair yard schedule.

Keywords

• ship repair
• hull
• gant chart
• gum method
• dry docking